I got a bunch of replies suggesting that Apple will remain the market share leader when measured in dollars and I really wasn't focused on that. I don't own Apple stock or Google stock. I'm not really focused on who makes more money in smartphones. But I care a lot about where our portfolio companies should be focusing their precious mobile development resources.
It's strange to see this debate keeps going on and on, with so many people constantly focusing on the wrong metrics.
Ultimately, what matters to developers is not the profitability of the company, Fred Wilson is right, there.
But it's also not the "market share". If we were going by market share, why not build apps for Nokia? What matters to developers is the potential market size. This comes out of two groups of people:
- People that install apps
- People that pay for apps
Currently, iOS platforms win hands down on the second point. Whether they win on the first one is debatable, but with the fragmentation of the Android marketplace (with some phone manufacturers disabling access to the marketplace altogether), it's probably not going to be a clear win for Android any time soon.
One point should at the very least be clear: if you're planning to make money from selling your mobile app to end users, then iOS is your target platform for now and the foreseeable future.
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